The Great Flood From ReportsOnHousing.com

<img src="https://kellysmith-southerncalifornia.sites.cbmoxi.com/files/2024/11/house-sinking-image.jpeg" alt="" width="306" height="333" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-5" /> Black Friday is known for the chaotic crowds it attracts. Many people take their post-thanksgiving meal nap to prepare for the lack of sleep that will inevitably ensue. With some of the most extravagant deals, millions across the United States line up outside stores like BestBuy, Target, or Walmart in the middle of the night. No one could pass on the “deal of a lifetime”. Similarly, once mortgage rates drop below the 6% threshold, a flood of transactions will take over the market. An event akin to rates dipping into a lower territory was during the pandemic. Stores were completely shut down, streets were empty, and it was as if the world stood still. The Federal Reserve was responsible for resurrecting the economy to combat this enormous economic hit. In March 2020, Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve cut interest rates to nearly 0%. They remained there for nearly two years. During this time, people became more comfortable leaving their homes and returning to everyday life. With proper safety regulations, buyers reemerged and were matched with a significant inventory shortage. With far less inventory, record-low mortgage rates, and plenty of demand, the housing market pushed the pedal to the metal. Among the chaos were unbelievably fast Expected Market Times. Bidding wars took over the marketplace. The bidding wars acted as a catalyst for soaring home prices. According to Freddie Mac’s House Price Index (HPI), prices rose approximately 38% from May 2020 to May 2022 in the United States. For comparison, from June 2022 through June 2024, prices rose by only 7%. Today, the main difference between recent times and the pandemic lockdown housing market is that mortgage rates have hovered near or above 6% since September 2022. With high mortgage rates and record-breaking house prices, unaffordability has brought the market to a screeching halt. As a result, closed sales have plummeted. Today's housing market is often compared to the 1980's, when mortgage rates peaked at 18.20%. The comparison is valid when looking at affordability based on income, home values, and interest rates. Both are equally unaffordable. From August to September 2024, mortgage rates successfully hovered near or below 6.5%. During this period, mortgage refinance applications soared, but mortgage applications failed to rise. This is due to the well-known mortgage rate lockdown, with an unequivocally large number of homeowners sitting in their homes enjoying their current low, locked-in fixed mortgage rate. Nearly 84% of all homeowners have rates at or below 5%. Most homeowners are unwilling to trade in theirfixed low rate for a much higherrate and payment. Home affordability is improving. The difference between a 6% and 7% 30-yearfixed mortgage rate is immense. If one desires to purchase a home with a desired mortgage payment of $5,000 (20% down, principal & interest only), at 7%, the homebuyer would be able to afford a $940,000 home. At 6%, that same homebuyer could afford a $1,042,500 home. That is a staggering difference of $102,500, which helps illustrate why so many homeowners have waited for a drop in mortgage rates, as affordability would only increase. As rates drop, a buyer's purchasing powerimproves tremendously. Where is the housing market heading from here? Buckle up because a flood of transactions will occur when mortgage rates drop to 5.99% or below. For some time, affordability will drastically improve. On the contrary, many sidelined homeowners and potential home buyers will re-enter the housing market, causing demand to increase and home values to skyrocket. Waiting is a dangerous game, as the best time to enter the housing market is now.